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Friday, August 27, 2010

You won…but what happens in November?

Arizona and Florida primary races were heavily focused on the immigration issue and the results were as expected, in favor of right-wing conservatives who are against The Arizona Immigration Law, SB1070. Since both of these states have large Hispanic populations, the question remains just how that will affect the November elections.

Miami should know something about this with its 65%+ Hispanic/Latino residents, and Andres Oppenheimer, writing for the Miami Herald says, “Pro-Arizona Immigration Law rhetoric will haunt Republicans.” This also holds true in Arizona where the Hispanic/Latino populace is 30.8 percent.

Oppenheimer wants to know how the GOP will court the Hispanic voters in November. On the other side, it is certain that the Democrats currently view this situation as one to exploit in off-setting the loss of some Independent voters in the last year. This would indicate to me that we might be on the verge of the worst negative advertising campaign that politics has ever experienced.

If the Latino population is bombarded with TV and radio ads that condemn Arizona Senator John McCain and Florida’s gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott, both of whom were hard-liners against the immigration issue in the primaries, Democrats in both of those races will probably garner even a higher percentage of the Hispanic vote than President Obama did in 2008. That was 67 percent.

Question is…will that be enough to win the election?

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